"Now the project managers of some companies are all doing the same action, which is to draw up cost reduction plans." Recently, for today's smart phone market, a person who has long been concerned about the mobile phone industry chain said. The reason for this is that some insiders said that due to the adverse economic conditions and the seasonal downturn in demand, global smartphone shipments fell sharply year-on-year.
At the same time, due to the decline of total terminal demand, in the case of imbalance between supply and demand, the major upstream manufacturers compete for orders in order to survive, thus affecting product profits.
In addition, it has become normal for downstream mobile phone manufacturers to squeeze the unit price of products from upstream suppliers. This move has shifted the pressure on the unit price of the entire mobile phone product to the upstream, thus reducing the unit price of upstream mobile phone products.
It can be seen that the decline in consumption capacity, high inflation and the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have led to a global economic downturn. The poor market environment has been transmitted to the smart phone market, which has directly affected the global shipments of smart phones this year. Manufacturers are also trying their best to reduce risks in order to achieve the goal of stable operation.
Mobile terminals frequently transmit adverse messages
In 2022, the mobile phone supply chain frequently sends out adverse news.
In March this year, guomingfu of Tianfeng securities announced that China's major Android mobile phone brands have cut about 170million orders so far in 2022 (accounting for 20% of the original global shipment plan in 2022), of which more than 70% of orders use MediaTek chips. Orders are likely to continue to decline in the coming months due to low consumer confidence.
In May, bad news came again.
On May 18, the Nikkei Asia reported that Xiaomi, oppo and vivo, the three major mobile phone brands in China, had informed suppliers that they would cut their orders by about 20% in the next few quarters.
Citing an unnamed source, the Nikkei pointed out that Xiaomi informed the supply chain that it would reduce its original annual sales target of 200million to 160million to 180million. Oppo and vivo also cut orders by about 20% this quarter and next quarter to absorb the excessive inventory accumulated in the current channel.
Guomingpei also warned that mainland mobile phone brands have cut orders for 100million units again in the past two months. At present, it is estimated that the shipments of Xiaomi, oppo, vivo, voice transmission and glory this year will be 160million units, 160million units, 115million units, 70million units and 55million units respectively. Samsung also lowered its mobile phone shipment target this year by about 10% to 275million; As for other parts and components, the shipment of camera modules and lenses of Android mobile phones in the mainland may reach an annual decrease of 20% - 30% in the third quarter of this year.
In fact, the major mobile phone brand manufacturers' reduction of this year's mobile phone shipment target has something to do with poor sales and their own inventory.
When communicating with jiwei.com, a person deeply involved in the offline channel of mobile phones said that in the face of such a poor market environment, how to sell inventory is an important test for major mobile phone terminal manufacturers.
The above-mentioned person continued to introduce that the non-performing inventory is generally divided into two types, one is semi cost material preparation, and the other is finished products. The finished products are mainly concentrated in the hands of terminals, provincial agents and national agents, so the specific inventory is unknown.
However, he frankly said that domestic mobile phone manufacturers do have the pressure to destock. At present, in order to promote product sales in the summer, many mobile phone brand manufacturers have made two preparations. On the one hand, they are competing for flagship mobile phone products and releasing new products before 6.18, on the other hand, the old products are greatly reduced.
In its view, the summer vacation will be a share war for domestic mobile phone manufacturers.
At the same time, it is understood that June 18 this year is a "Carnival" in the mobile phone industry, because under the influence of the policy, the price of domestic mobile phone products has fallen by a large margin, and some products have fallen by as much as thousands of yuan.
So, in the case of weak demand and low sales, can 6.18 catch up with the decline of mobile phones? In this regard, a person deeply involved in the upstream of mobile phones admitted that he did not expect this 6.18 promotion, because according to the normal market in the past, mobile phone manufacturers would generally stock up in advance before important promotion dates, but this year "will not" because of too much inventory.
It can be seen that the inventory pressure has become an important reason for the terminal to pull goods upstream. However, it should be noted that while the terminal sales are poor, it has also aroused the emergence of undesirable phenomena at the end of the mobile phone supply chain to a certain extent, such as price war and insufficient capital chain.
"Transformation" of mobile phone upstream suppliers
In the face of weak terminal sales, the pressure of mobile phone manufacturers has also shifted to the mobile phone supply chain.
According to the information from the supply chain of jiwei.com, due to the continuous impact of factors such as poor sales of smart phone terminals, there have been three obvious phenomena in the upstream supply chain of mobile phones up to now.
The first big phenomenon is that among the upstream mobile phone suppliers, the project managers of some manufacturers are making low-cost solutions. Behind this action, it means that they may squeeze the product prices of upstream suppliers within the cost considerations. In addition, they may even change suppliers because of price problems.
In other words, while squeezing the profits of the upstream supply chain, mobile terminals may also change the existing supply chain market pattern.
In fact, in addition to the above phenomenon, the product shipments of mobile phone upstream suppliers also showed a downward trend. Take the camera as an example. At present, many manufacturers in the whole mobile camera field are not only facing the pressure of clearing inventory, but also showing a downward trend in product shipments year-on-year.
According to an insider in the field of mobile camera, according to jiwei.com, at present, the shipments of mobile camera manufacturers are declining year-on-year, and some manufacturers' shipments are even declining by nearly one third year-on-year.
However, in the case of declining shipments and price pressure, some mobile phone upstream suppliers have adopted a "transformation" approach to achieve healthy and sustainable development.
A few days ago, jiwei.com learned from the supply chain that at present, several mobile camera module manufacturers have integrated mobile phone and non mobile phone projects, regardless of mobile phone and non mobile phone businesses, so as to reduce costs and optimize internal control.
It is important to know that in the early days, mobile camera module manufacturers intended to better develop non mobile phone business, and they transferred more personnel to non mobile phone field. Now this move is enough to show the poor state of the whole market.
From another point of view, in the procurement process, there must be differences in camera prices between mobile phones and non mobile phones. The emergence of integration may further reduce the unit price of non mobile cameras.
Therefore, for suppliers, whether in the mobile phone or non mobile phone field, the pressure is only increasing.
On the mobile phone end, suppliers are facing a situation of declining shipments and lower prices; In the field of non mobile phones, despite the factor of shipment, it is also facing "encirclement and suppression" from many competitors.
Now, once the price side is "affected", it can be imagined that the situation is worrying.
However, in the face of a variety of external uncertainties, "internal control" seems to have become a way to reduce risks. At the supply chain end, efficiency, structure, product and organization optimization are important issues that must be considered. In the future, the competition of the supply chain may not be limited to turnover, but more efficiency, cost control, accounting period, etc.
(checked by /aruko)