At the beginning of June 2022, musk played the old tune again and again announced that he would send thousands of star ships to Mars to complete the modern Noah's Ark feat. Academician musk, the world's richest man and the king of the human stem, has made another routine on twitter.
Musk once again boasted that "thousands of star ships go to Mars"
On June 5, 2022, musk first released a live slide advertisement of his SpaceX launch base on the social networking website to celebrate the completion of the mission of SpaceX's recyclable "dragon spacecraft" after successfully docking with the international space station and returning with the crew, setting the fastest record for such missions.
Then academician Ma said: "expanding the biosphere to multiple planets will expand the scope and scale of consciousness.
And this will enable us to back up the biosphere on the earth to other planets and protect all life from the earth's catastrophes.
Human beings are the shepherds of all living beings, because no other species can send life to Mars. We can't live up to all creatures. "
Someone asked academician Ma, "what are you going to do?"
Academician Ma immediately switched back from his literary and artistic middle-aged state to his rich cargo state: "repair more than 1000 star ships and spacecraft to transport creatures to Mars! Basically, it is the contemporary Noah's Ark!"
After carrying the goods, academician Ma returned to the middle-aged state of literature and art and sighed: "some people hate human beings, but I love human beings so deeply."
It is said that this is not the first time academician Ma mentioned the number of "thousands of star ships" when talking about the colonization of Mars. In January of 2020, he listed a similar outlook on social networking sites.
On january17,2020, musk first said on the social networking website that if we want to achieve interplanetary colonization between planets and maintain the minimum condition for human survival on the destination planet, the earth is capable of sending an average load of more than one million tons into orbit every year.
Then academician Ma began to make public accounts:
The design goal of the Starship spacecraft is that in the future, each ship can be recycled and launched three times a day. Then it can be launched thousands of times a year, with a load of no less than 100 tons each time.
Such ten star ships and spacecraft can achieve the goal of sending more than one million tons of load into orbit a year.
Then, SpaceX should start from the short-term goal of building 100 star ships every year and achieve the goal of building 1000 star ships every year in ten years.
Achieving this goal in 10 years' time means that we will have the ability to send 100million tons of payload into orbit every year, which is equivalent to sending the necessary materials that can support 100000 people to live on Mars into the Earth Mars synchronous orbit.
Someone kindly reminded: "ilongo, the nearest launch window between earth and Mars only appears once every 26 months. So you have repaired 1000 starship spacecraft, and you have to rest for two years to go to Mars? What are these spacecraft doing in the two years you have been waiting for?"
Academician Ma waved with a big hand: "no fear, first put a thousand star ships to Mars into orbit around the earth, and then within the launch window period every 26 months, a thousand star ships will go to Mars in 30 days, just like the TV series Battlestar Galactica."
Many people made a simple calculation on the timetable given by musk himself in 2020. The result is that musk said that he would send onemillion people to Mars in 2050.
Moreover, musk has arranged the livelihood of people on Mars.
Someone asked, "what is the selection standard for Martian immigrants? Is it decided by drawing lots at other positions after all key posts are booked, or is it recruited according to all skills? Is there a quota for family migration?"
Academician Ma replied, "it's OK. Basically, everyone can go to Mars if they want. Even if the money is not enough, it's good to borrow some money."
When asked whether the Martian immigrants have the opportunity to work and repay their loans, academician Ma was once again arrogant: "of course! There will be plenty of work opportunities on Mars in the future!"
In the Ted interview in April, 2022, musk said again: "as long as they are willing, almost everyone can work hard to save money and save enough $100000 to go to Mars."
After thinking about it, compared with Academician Ma's version of "Hu Bu Bu Chou Mi", which "everyone on earth can afford to save $100000", it is much more likely that microfinance collection and "naked strip" will be popularized to Mars.
SpaceX is behind schedule: the overall test firing of the star ship has been skipped
However, it is by no means easy to satisfy academician Ma's lofty sentiments, and the obstacles are not large.
According to Musk's repeated schedule from 2020 to 2022, in order to achieve the "contemporary Noah's Ark" plan of sending millions of people to Mars by thousands of star ships in 2050, and to achieve the actual technical and economically feasible standard starship spacecraft, it is necessary to start sending loads into the orbit to Mars from 2028.
Although SpaceX's business is now growing by leaps and bounds, it has completed mankind's first commercial space trip, and "dragon spacecraft" is expected to replace Russian rockets and launch services as the exclusive manned contractor of the international space station. Falcon series recoverable rockets and Raptor series heavy rocket engines are gradually maturing.
However, the Starship spacecraft is still on the site of the launch base in southern Texas. It has not even been completely completed, let alone successfully launched into the sky.
On May 3, 2021, SpaceX announced the successful test launch of the Starship's two-stage hull rocket prototype Sn10. However, the overall one-stage rocket engine has not been matched with it for integrated test launch.
In August, 2021, musk announced on the social networking site that "the Starship has been successfully built" and showed the site map of the overall fuselage of the starship over 120 meters. However, the distance between the completion of the overall fuselage and the successful launch cannot be quickly crossed.
In addition to the spacecraft, the slipway that can be recovered and launched is also under construction and patent application.
For the 143 meter high super launch pad that can meet the repeated launching and recovery operations of star ships, SpaceX began to apply for a patent in September 2021, and musk announced its construction in January 2022.
According to the current progress, before January 10, 2022, SpaceX began to try to erect the whole fuselage of the Starship on the launch pad, and conduct experiments such as shaking and opening and closing of the fixed mechanism.
However, musk will test launch the whole starship in late November 2021.
In addition, in november2021, musk said in SpaceX's internal e-mail that "the production shortage crisis of Raptor engine is more serious than before. If we can't achieve the efficiency of launching a starship every two weeks next year, the company will face a real crisis of bankruptcy."
The technology is difficult to meet the colonization of Mars, and the most advanced technology can only produce 5g of oxygen
Even if the progress of SpaceX can catch up, the existing supporting technologies and human society will be difficult to support sending millions of people to live on Mars in 2050.
In order for millions of people to survive on Mars, the basic water, air, resource circulation, closed residence and food sources cannot follow the immigrants to Mars at the same time. They must be built by the advance part first.
According to the calculation of Jill Sohm, director of the environmental research project of the University of Southern California, the area of cultivated land that can feed millions of people, that is, the most advanced technology and the highest efficiency, can not be less than 1500 square kilometers on Mars.
This area seems small, but it is actually equal to the entire administrative area of San Francisco.
The cultivated land area is the smallest in a series of infrastructure and material lists. The air and water sources are astronomical, and they are taken from the earth, which is not reliable in both technical and economic feasibility.
So we must find enough ice storage on Mars and prepare our own atmosphere for human habitation. The ice storage that can meet the needs of millions of people has not yet been found on Mars.
Such technical direction is not without progress. On April 20, 2021, NASA's perseverance Rover completed a milestone breakthrough in automatic oxygen production on Mars.
However, the total oxygen production of this milestone breakthrough is only 5g, which is a drop in the ocean compared with meeting the respiratory needs of onemillion people.
Even if all basic technologies have passed the test, ice reserves sufficient for millions of people have been successfully discovered on Mars. The construction of the initial infrastructure of human settlements on a bare land without oxygen and with excessive radiation cannot be completed by ordinary human construction teams, and a large number of AI driven unmanned construction machinery must be used.
However, the progress of AI technology, even the completion of all unmanned construction projects on the earth in 2050, has a long way to go.
The above is just a spectrum of technology impossible. As for the alien settlement society with millions of people, how the form will be distorted is even less remarkable.
The ideal is full, and the reality is skinny. Academician Ma's ambition is so high that the reality of landing is difficult.