Affected By The Supply Chain And The Epidemic, Apple Estimates That IPhone Shipments May Decrease By 20 Million In 2022

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Bloomberg reported: although Apple originally set a shipment target of 240 million iPhones for 2022, the company has reduced this number to 220 million due to the combined impact of supply chain, epidemic and other factors** This means that compared with 2021, iPhone sales this year will show "zero growth". The first is the global chip shortage. Even if the company is known for its strong supply chain management ability, its production plan will inevitably be hindered occasionally.

Disassembly data of iPhone 13 pro (from ifixit)

The second is the shutdown related to covid-19 epidemic, coupled with the competition for already tight chip production capacity in automobile manufacturing and other fields, Apple's supply chain has also been made worse.

Specifically, as one of TSMC's most important customers, Apple's A-Series or M-series SOC has not been affected.

However, in terms of peripheral parts such as display driver and power management chip, the company is still in short supply like its competitors.

The third reason is the decline of customers' spending power. High inflation combined with the global economic downturn caused by the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the reduction of ordinary consumers' savings, which was finally transmitted to the terminal retail business of iPhone.

Apple has said its revenue may fall by as much as $8 billion this quarter. It was reported earlier that the company's continuous problems in the supply chain may lead to the failure of the new generation of iPhone 14 series smartphones to arrive as promised.

Even so, apple is expected to hold a special press conference on September 13 and launch all four iPhone 14 models at one go, but some SKUs may have to wait a long time to arrive (similar to the launch of iPhone 12 in 2020).

Finally, even if Apple's iPhone sales fall to 220 million this year, the company will still be the world's only major mobile phone manufacturer to achieve large-scale device shipments with limited release models.

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