Katie Stockton, founder of fairlead strategies, said bitcoin continued to fall below the support level of $40000, representing the long-term bearish trend of the cryptocurrency. Stockton has been monitoring $40000 as the key support level of bitcoin, and defined the falling level as the closing price of two Fridays below that level. Bitcoin fell below $40000, which means that the current cryptocurrency may fall to $27200, which may be 29% lower than the current level.
"Because the monthly MACD shows a sell signal and the monthly random index points down above the oversold level, there is room for further decline in bitcoin in the coming months. The negative seesaw trend of the MACD index in a week, which we believe is a negative medium-term catalyst and increases the risk of Fibonacci support of nearly $27200," she said
However, Stockton pointed out that although the medium and long-term kinetic energy index is in the bearish region, the short-term kinetic energy index of bitcoin is in the neutral region, indicating that there may be some upward fluctuations in the near future.
"The resistance level is determined by the 200 day and 40 week moving average and is currently around $47200. If prices soar to this level, it means that they are likely to rise 23% from the current level, and this resistance level will be corrected lower when it goes down," she said
Stockton pointed out that the last monthly MACD selling signal of bitcoin was from March to June 2020, while the last long-term monthly MACD selling signal was from July 2018 to may 2019, when the bull market of bitcoin continued to decline at the end of 2017.
The price of bitcoin is 44% lower than the record high of about $69000 in November last year and 18% lower so far this year.