According to reports, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made it clear that his $44 billion acquisition of twitter depends on the accuracy of a number: the number of robot accounts on the twitter platform. Now, this topic has triggered an answer contest.
Twitter said in a document submitted to regulators that the number of robot accounts on its platform is less than 5% of the total. But musk said he suspected the figure was much higher. If he can prove that Twitter's data is inaccurate, musk may withdraw from the transaction or reduce the purchase price.
Although many outsiders expect this figure to be higher than 5%, their assessment methods vary. Andrea stroppa, a former data consultant of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and a senior person who examines online counterfeit goods, predicts that robot accounts account for about 10% of Twitter's global users in the past nine years.
Stropa also said that for some specific topics such as digital cryptocurrency, the proportion could be as high as 20%. For accounts engaged in some "conspiracy theories", this proportion may exceed 30%.
At the same time, BOT sentinel, a research firm, predicts that 10% to 15% of twitter accounts are "untrue". This includes fake accounts, spammers, fraudsters, evil robots, duplicates and hate accounts for a single purpose. These fake accounts are more likely to post tweets about politics, digital cryptocurrency, climate change and COVID-19.
Cyabra, another research company, estimates that the proportion of untrue accounts on Twitter is 13.7%.
Twitter did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Musk wants to change his mind
Musk said earlier this week that fake accounts account for at least 20% of the total number of Twitter users, and may even be as high as 80% to 90%. The specific number is as unknown as the human soul. On Thursday, he also posted an expression pack on twitter, jokingly suggesting that Twitter was "full of robots".
But Adam Badawi, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that it may be difficult to use this issue to exit the twitter deal.
"To achieve this, he needs to prove that the gap between the real number of robot accounts and the figures disclosed by twitter in its filings with the securities and Exchange Commission has reached the level of 'material negative impact'. Specifically, he may need to prove that more than half of Twitter's users are false," he said
Musk agreed last month to buy twitter for $44 billion and privatize it. Then musk showed signs of wavering as he sought to raise money for the deal. He said last week that the deal would be put on hold until he got more information (the proportion of robot accounts).
Earlier this week, musk said at a technology conference in Miami that it was not impossible to reach a viable deal at a lower price. This has triggered speculation that he may seek renegotiation, but so far, the deal has not been formally shelved or renegotiated, and musk is still abiding by his contractual commitments.
Compared with most people, musk may have a different experience with robot accounts on twitter. Those who design robot accounts will program these fake accounts to let them follow popular users on Twitter and integrate into them, which looks more human. Musk, with 94 million fans, may attract a higher proportion of robots than most users. Previously, there have been fake Musk's account for digital cryptocurrency fraud.
Stropa said that in other words, compared with other platforms, robot account is indeed a bigger problem for twitter. "Twitter's robot detection software is much weaker than other social media," he said
Long delay in court
In fact, the robot account does not violate the rules of twitter. Among them, some accounts are funny, and some are also valuable in other aspects, such as automatically posting earthquake magnitude information on twitter.
Of course, with the emergence of hot issues such as the epidemic, the proportion of automated activities tends to be higher. From January to June 2020, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University collected more than 200 million tweets discussing the epidemic. They found that 82% of the 50 most influential accounts forwarding related content were robots. Of the top 1000 forwarders, 62% are robots.
But overall, the exact proportion of robot accounts is almost unknown, and people don't even know its composition. "I suspect this issue will be delayed in court because rational people may disagree on what is a robot and what is not a robot," said Chris bail, a professor at Duke University