618 has been "pre sold" for a week, and many consumers said they "didn't feel it". At 8:00 p.m. on May 31, "a good start" will begin again. Will consumers pay? "Without pre-sale, what is a 'good start'?" A consumer said bluntly to ran Caijing, "up to now, he has only participated in two orders. He bought makeup remover and facial mask in lijiaqi's live room. When tmall 618 pre-sale started on May 26, I was following liuzhenhong in the aerobics. I took my mobile phone during the aerobics and saw that it was already 8 o'clock. The pre-sale began, but I was not in a hurry. I went to lijiaqi's live room for a while after the aerobics."
"And there is no list of purchases this year." Mimi added.
In order to attract consumers, this year, in 618, tmall and jd.com, the two main platforms, showed great sincerity - tmall is "50 yuan less than 300 yuan", and jd.com has also given "50 yuan less than 299 yuan". This strength is even called "the largest strength discount in history" by consumers.
According to the analysis of Finance and economics, taking tmall as an example, the "50 yuan less than 300 yuan" is indeed the largest in recent years, because tmall 618 has "30 yuan less than 300 yuan" in recent years. However, this is not the "biggest discount in history", because some merchants mentioned that tmall will "reduce 60 yuan by 300 yuan" in 2017, not to mention the "50% discount" of tmall and JD in early years, and the "199 yuan (some categories) will be reduced by 100 yuan".
However, even though both tmall and jd.com have given the sincerity of the platform, consumers are "not paying". "The big promotion is generally to store daily necessities, such as paper towels, which are more cost-effective. In addition, some skin care products also have appropriate prices. But this year everything has changed. Before the outbreak, two batches of goods were stored. Now the skin care products on the top duty-free platform are more cost-effective than the live broadcast room of lijiaqi. There is really nothing to buy." Mimi said.
Consumers are depressed, and businesses are not having a good time. "We took several new products to participate in the pre-sale. That night, the waiter came to ask for 'war report' the next morning. But in fact, the data are not good-looking, and the growth rate of pre-sale orders is not large." Luoluo, an e-commerce operator of a cutting-edge beauty brand, told fuel finance.
More importantly, for most businesses, participating in the 618 promotion means that their profits are compressed. "When participating in activities, the brand price will be lower than usual, the profit space will be further compressed, and even uncontrollable factors such as express logistics will exist, and the commodity loss rate will be higher than before." Luo Luo said.
However, Luoluo's brand also has its own account. "618 is a rare promotion activity known by the whole people. Compared with the activities held on the platform every month on weekdays, 618 reaches a wider audience. Our brand has just been established for two years. At present, it is still in the introduction period in the product life cycle. We hope that with the strength of the activities, we can promote the brand to enhance brand awareness."
618 promotion is an opportunity for new brands. According to the data of tmall.com in 2021, many cutting-edge brands such as amiro, mint health, yongpu and ubras all set a single day sales record in the same period in 618 last year.
However, some businesses that did not require 618 chose to leave. "We didn't participate in the double 11 last year, and we finally decided not to participate in the 618 this year." Guo Guo, a tmall seller who has been a commodity for 10 years and has an annual sales of ten million yuan, told Caijing.
Feifei, another tmall women's clothing store seller who has worked for 12 years, also said, "since 2020, I have not participated in various promotional activities."
This is not what the platform wants to see.
Before the beginning of 618, JD released the financial report for the first quarter of 2022. The data showed that JD had a net loss of 2.991 billion yuan in the first quarter. On May 26, Alibaba released the financial report data for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 (the three months ended March 31) and the whole year. The financial report said that "the overall Gmv (total transaction volume) recorded a year-on-year decrease of low single digits in this quarter". At the subsequent financial report meeting, it also mentioned that "the Gmv in April decreased or exceeded 10%".
In this context, both jd.com and tmall.com urgently need 618 to boost platform consumption, which may also be the reason for the increase in the full reduction this year.
On May 30, data from jd.com showed that as of May 29, the pre-sale orders of jd.com 618 from the "post-95s" had increased by 75% year-on-year, and the types of commodities participating in the pre-sale had increased by more than 20% compared with last year. The pre-sale orders of famous brands such as Xiaomi, Haier, Lenovo, Huawei and Midea had exceeded 100 million yuan. Combustion finance also asked tmall about the pre-sale of 618 this year, but as of press time, no reply has been received.
However, from the feedback of merchants and the reaction of consumers, whether the "greater efforts" discount can bring "better results" this year remains to be proved by the final data.
Businesses that "can't be accounted for" begin to leave 618
For most businesses, participation in 618 is still a priority. A tmall merchant who participated in this year's 618 event told Caijing, "during the shopping festival, consumers basically place orders for bargains and more gifts. For merchants, the big promotion is to run Gmv. In addition, they can clear goods. As for profits, it's just to earn more and less."
"In the past two years, we will all participate in the promotion, and even increase the advertising efforts during this period." Luo Luo said that his company was no exception in 618 this year, and applied for the largest marketing fee this year early to reach more potential users.
But accounting is still a difficult problem. "50 yuan will be deducted from 300 yuan. The 50 yuan discount is borne by the merchants." Feifei said.
Guo Guo's account is clearer, "Take the commodity with the original price of 100 yuan as an example. The daily coupon is 10 yuan, and the cross store discount of 300 yuan minus 50 yuan is superimposed on 618. The on hand price is about 74.7 yuan, which is equivalent to a 7.5% discount. In addition, in addition to the full discount, the platform Commission of 2.5-5.5% should be deducted, which is equivalent to a 6.5-7.25% discount. This does not include the labor management cost, marketing cost, express cost, etc. so to participate in 618, we must first consider whether the price can be affordable."
"In addition, there are labor costs, after-sales, logistics and other problems associated with the promotion. For example, in terms of labor costs, 5000 orders are issued every day, and 20000 orders are issued every day during the event. In order to complete the work, temporary workers and outsourcing may have to be added. At the promotion node, various after-sales problems and logistics problems also emerge in endlessly." Guo added.
On the other side of the increase in investment is the uncertainty of income. "During the pre-sale days, the traffic has not been much better. Maybe it will be better after the official start of the event on June 1." Luo Luo said.
But Feifei, who has participated in the event for many years, said frankly that participating in the promotion no longer means the increase of sales. "If you don't participate in the event, the consumers who should buy it will also buy it. If you participate in the event, it is possible that the transaction volume before and after the event is relatively small, and the transaction volume in those days is relatively large. On the whole, the sales will not increase, but the after-sales investment will increase, and the profit will be much less."
"Last year, we participated in the 618 activity of the platform. However, from the perspective of participation, in fact, there was only some trading volume on the opening day. Although the activity lasted from May to June, the extension of the overall activity cycle did not substantially change the increase in trading volume." Another Taobao seller Mi told Caijing.
"In the past two years, I have not participated in the activities, and my performance is not much different from that when I participated in the activities." Feifei speaks frankly. Guo Guo also said, "last year, he did not participate in the double 11, and the sales volume decreased slightly, but the overall scale can still be maintained, and it is still very cost-effective in terms of the input-output ratio."
In addition to the cost and income issues, businesses have a bigger problem, that is, "too long". The "618" and "double 11" promotions have been extended from the original "one day" to the present two months and more than 20 days, which have not only made consumers resent, but also made merchants complain.
"Most of the big promotion businesses make profits, and the orders that lose money account for a relatively high proportion. If it is a big promotion for one day, even if it is a loss, it will gain exposure and traffic, which can barely be counted. But now the big promotion lasts for more than 20 days, and many enterprises can't afford it." Guo Guo bluntly said, "especially in the first half of this year, the epidemic situation is still under great pressure."
So it is reasonable for some businesses to choose to leave. "On May 10, tmall launched 618 business registration. After thinking about it for more than ten days, I finally decided not to sign up." Guo Guo said.
Roughly divided by brand awareness and sales scale, Taobao and tmall stores can generally be divided into international and domestic well-known brands, international and domestic brands, waist merchants and small merchants. There is a definition that a merchant with an annual sales of 10-50million yuan is classified as a waist seller. In terms of sales, Guoguo's store is already waist. Generally speaking, the higher the level of the store, the higher the profit margin, and can bear the big promotion of profit transfer. But now the waist is also hesitating, which shows the difficulty of the situation.
"What I have learned now is that all the top brands will sign up, and some will sign up at the waist. The remaining small and medium-sized sellers should not be able to afford a 83% discount, except for some categories with high profits." Guo Guo said, "this year's registration for tmall 618 was originally scheduled to end on May 18, but on the morning of May 18, tmall changed the notice and postponed the registration time to May 23."
Once participating in the big promotion meant taking the express train of platform activities and riding the east wind of traffic, but now it is a choice of "three blockages". "Rising prices hurt consumers. It is unbearable to lose money for 20 consecutive days without rising prices. Although it is not offended by both sides, it will greatly reduce the weight." Guo Guo fretted.
Now the battle of 618 has begun. Some businesses, such as Guo Guo and Feifei, are far away from the battlefield in consideration of the cost. Some businesses, such as Luoluo's shop, are still attracted by 618.
Perhaps just as a businessman said, every year, 618 merchants participate, and some do not, so there is no need to make a big fuss. But change is indeed taking place.
Consumer: didn't feel "greater discounts"
For consumers, it is getting smaller and smaller.
"Ah? 618 has already started?" Huang duo'er, who has received marketing calls from several merchants in recent days, knows that the annual mid year promotion has begun. In the past, this kind of big promotion has been warming up. Businesses often adopt SMS marketing. This year, many consumers have received feedback from businesses' telemarketing, which may also reflect the urgency of businesses.
As an Internet native and a "hand chopping enthusiast", the post-90s Huang duo'er will not miss all kinds of promotions. In previous years' 618 and double 11, Huang duo'er also made a list early in the morning. Jing and other activities started to rush to buy.
But this year, until the official start of pre-sale, Huang duo'er spent more than ten minutes in lijiaqi's live studio, and didn't think about what to buy.
"In previous years, the main purpose of the promotion was to stock up. Daily necessities such as paper towels, detergent and toothpaste, and skin care products such as face cream, essence and facial cleanser were mainly at the right price, and I was waiting for the two promotion replenishments at the middle and end of the year. But this year, I really didn't think I needed to buy anything. There was no shortage at home. I didn't think the activity was very strong when watching the live broadcast room and paying attention to the goods in the store."
Young people with changing consumption views are becoming more and more sensitive to prices. This year, although the platform has made great efforts to offer "299-50" and "300-50", it is the common feeling of this session of consumers that the degree of commodity preference is not great.
"I have something I want to buy, but I don't think there is much activity on the goods I just need." Old Taobao users, who have registered on Taobao for more than 6000 days and spent more than a million yuan on the platform, told Caijing that although the store said "it is cheaper than the official period, and the deposit is preferred", the discount is painless 4 yuan and 10 yuan. "The deposit is 30 yuan, and the official period can be reduced by 4 yuan, but the other money with the store can be directly used with a 10 yuan coupon. To say that this is also an activity discount, that is too little."
Finally, I only paid a deposit for a gadget, thinking that when 618 was officially opened, I would collect 300 yuan and use the "300-50" of the platform to reduce it.
Luo Luo explained that this year's "small discount" for each commodity was also due to the platform's greater full discount to a certain extent. "In previous years, the large full discount was' 300-30 ', and this year's 618 was directly reduced by 20 yuan. It seems that the platform's greater promotion is even stronger than in the past, but the brands themselves have their own measurement. With the platform's full discount in the first place, the discount of brand stores will naturally become very restrained."
Consumers' failure to "buy" is also reflected in the number of viewers in lijiaqi's live studio.
Since the tax rectification of the e-commerce industry, lijiaqi was the only one who ranked among the top three on the results list of Taobao live broadcast with goods on the first day of double 11 pre-sale last year. As a unique "top stream", on the first day of 618 pre-sale, lijiaqi's live studio attracted a large number of fans, and 150million people watched it during the 6-hour live broadcast.
But last year, the pre-sale of lijiaqi's live studio on the double 11 attracted 250million people to watch. However, it should be noted that last year, the broadcasting time reached 12 hours, so the contrast is also discounted.
Behind the fatigue of consumers, the big promotion price may be the experience and lesson of the "big pit", and it is also the "aftereffect" of too many live broadcasting rooms and daily activities.
Before the pre-sale began, a note in the little red book mentioned 618, and someone said, "I am in Shanghai, and the things I bought before have not been delivered. I am bored to look at the list that has not been delivered, and the price has increased by 6-12%." Some people also said, "a skirt you see usually costs 249 yuan. At the end of the month, there will be activities of 200 yuan minus 15 yuan. Now 618 has arrived, and the price has become 289 yuan."
"I don't believe in the big promotion and the lowest price. Last year, I was the 'deposit man' for the double 11. As a result, a pair of shoes bought with a deposit from Philharmonic flagship store turned out to be purchased at a high price." Although he learned that there was a price protection policy this year, Huang duo'er still became cautious, "first, there is no just need, and second, the prices of many commodities are not particularly appropriate. He has no time to think about how to calculate the lowest price. It is better to buy from the live broadcasting room if he needs to."
The importance of 618 is also being dispelled by the endless activities of various live broadcasting rooms and platforms. "Every day, I will squat in the live broadcasting room and buy those with the right price. This also leads to the fact that the demand for stocking up will not explode in 618. Moreover, in terms of price, 618 is a few dollars cheaper, and I have to work hard to get the bill."
Various "festivals" that were once born for active users have become "a thunder" of the great promotion. "New Year Festival", "Queen's Day", "food festival", "whitening and sunscreen Festival", "Book Festival"... In the past five months alone, the e-commerce platform has carried out dozens of "Festival" activities, and there are full reduction activities by category during each activity period.
As Huang duo'er said, "having activities every day means having no activities." Huang duo'er's habit of waiting only to promote stock up in previous years is imperceptibly influenced by the "activity discounts" from time to time on the e-commerce platform and the "low prices" in the live studio every day. "There are often activities, and when there is a shortage, he buys it, which is almost the same as the lowest price. There is no need to wait."
Greasy also mentioned that the price of her shopping in the live broadcasting room is very favorable, so there is no need to wait for big promotion activities. "The discount of the promotion activities is mainly the full discount of the platform. However, in order to achieve the maximum discount, I have to collect a bill. I often collect more than 300 yuan to buy 149 yuan of laundry detergent, and then more than 900 yuan. But afterwards, I think that there are a lot of right and wrong needs for the goods I buy."
Do we need a big promotion
Businesses and consumers who feel more and more "numb" to the promotion activities also bring a new thought, "do we still need to promote?"
The start of the e-commerce promotion came from a double 11 promotion planned by Taobao 13 years ago. The original intention was to promote the platform. Unexpectedly, the "double 11" event achieved a high turnover of 50million yuan. Since then, singles' day has become a well-known shopping festival.
In the future, with the continuous growth of e-commerce retail penetration, the platform that tasted the benefits of the "double 11" Carnival shopping festival began to spontaneously create "festivals" to attract consumers.
With the "festival making campaign" of the platform reaching its peak, there are multi node promotion activities almost every month, which makes consumers gradually indifferent to the promotion activities of the platform. Even the "618" and "double 11" promotion activities are gradually difficult to activate the desire of businesses and consumers to participate.
"In the early years, consumers flocked to double 11 and even 618, waiting for time to rush to place an order. To a large extent, because users know that these two promotion activities are distributed in the middle and end of the year, and the price is low for a year, consumers tend to accumulate consumer demand and wait for these two promotion activities to meet their demand." Yang Shu, a retail industry observer, told Caijing. But now, the consumer's consumption habit of purchasing goods only after big promotion has already changed.
"The reason why the promotion activities are well known is that there is a discount. But now the promotion activities on multiple platforms and the live e-commerce shouting low prices have broken the consumer's perception that only the promotion can have a discount." Yang Shu believes that what consumers need is not big promotion activities, but low price enjoyment. "If commodities can be sold at low prices on weekdays, consumers' consumption can be released in time without waiting for a major promotion."
However, although Yang Shu believes that the current promotion activities have lost the leading role of "one call and one response" in his early years, he has not denied the necessity of the promotion activities.
"Generally speaking, a large promotion activity involves a market of nearly trillion yuan, and its related industries welcome development opportunities. Generally speaking, it not only gives brand exposure and opportunities to communicate with users, but also brings affordable benefits to consumers." Yang Shu added that the attraction of the promotion activities is affected by the rise of platform marketing and live e-commerce, but the promotion activities that have been followed for so many years still have their vitality.
From the data, 618 promotion also has its effect. According to the data provided by jd.com, the pre-sale orders of several well-known brands exceeded RMB 100 million, and the pre-sale orders of other brands increased several times. For example, the pre-sale orders of Mengniu increased 19 times year-on-year, the pre-sale orders of Changyu and Yanghe increased more than 13 times and 8 times year-on-year, the pre-sale orders of three and a half tons increased 396% year-on-year, and the pre-sale orders of yutianchuan coffee flagship store increased 200% year-on-year
At present, tmall has not provided any more big promotion data, but the Southern Metropolis Daily quoted the data report of magic mirror Market Intelligence on May 29 to show that among the brands participating in tmall's pre-sale, beauty, skin care, mobile phones and sports shoes are still popular categories.
Big promotion is a powerful tool to boost platform consumption. Taking the double 11 event in 2021, the latest annual promotion activity, as an example, the total transaction volume of tmall and JD double 11 was 540.3 billion yuan and 349.1 billion yuan respectively, and the cumulative total transaction volume of the two platforms during the double 11 period was 889.4 billion yuan. Among them, the turnover of hundreds of brands during the "double 11" in 2021 exceeded 100 million yuan. You know, in 2021, A-share listed companies ranked 100th in annual revenue, and their annual revenue was only 3billion yuan.
In addition to the needs of the platform, as a node to stimulate the public's enthusiasm for consumption, it is also necessary for businesses and consumers to exist. In addition to Guo Guo, Feifei and Mi Mi, who did not participate in the promotion, many businesses told Caijing that they still participated in the 618 event this year.
However, it is also a fact that the enthusiasm of consumers decreases and the burden of businesses increases. If it is not improved, the loss of consumers and businesses is inevitable.
At present, major platforms have also launched a number of policies to retain consumers and businesses. For example, in the past two years, the rush purchase has been changed from early morning to 8 p.m. this year, tmall has cancelled the "deposit reduction" to "participate in the direct reduction of pre-sale prices", and jd.com and tmall have price protection services.
For businesses, there are also various kinds of support. For example, JD released 30 "three reductions and three excellence" policies to reduce the pressure on businesses. Alibaba also disclosed 25 assistance measures for businesses.
However, it is worth considering whether this is the root of the problem? The key to whether the promotion activities can continue year by year is whether there are consumers paying for it. It can be predicted that when the universal promotion means of "discount" fails and the strength of the discount is widely questioned, the magic of the promotion activity will fade.
Nowadays, the atmosphere of the "double 11" and "618" activities is becoming colder and colder, which seems to show that what consumers need is not a dazzling array of promotions. The days when the platform relies on big promotion to create a new high in Gmv may never come back.