The price of nucleic acid detection is still declining. Recently, Hebei, Henan, Beijing and other places have lowered the price of nucleic acid detection again. The maximum price of single acquisition of nucleic acid detection has been adjusted from 28 yuan to 19.7 yuan per person, the lowest price of mixed detection has reached 3.4 yuan, while in the centralized procurement of local organizations, the single price of nucleic acid is as low as 3.2 yuan**
It is worth mentioning that when the nucleic acid test came out in 2020, the initial price was 200 yuan / person. From 200 yuan to 3.2 yuan, from the public level, the continuous decline in prices is good; However, for the enterprises that broke out through nucleic acid detection at that time, their began to face the crisis of declining profit margins, and some companies have struggled near the breakeven line**
According to e company of securities times, "3.2 yuan / person, this price really surprised me. We expect to continue to reduce the price, but we didn't expect to reduce so much at one time." Wang Hua (a pseudonym), an executive of a medium-sized testing reagent enterprise, told reporters that at present, the reagent supply of his company is mainly mixed testing. At present, the national guiding price is about 8 yuan per person, and there is still profit. However, if it is reduced to less than 5 yuan, the company will consider further reducing the cost, but in fact, there is not much space to compress.
The lowest price of new crown nucleic acid in China is 3.2 yuan
In 2020, when nucleic acid testing was just launched, the initial price was 200 yuan / person. Later, with more qualified enterprises obtaining qualification and continuous improvement of production capacity, the National Medical Insurance Bureau issued national price adjustment notices for many times. The price of single person single inspection was reduced from 180 yuan, 80 yuan and 60 yuan to 28 yuan at present, and the government guidance price of multi person mixed inspection was reduced to no more than 8 yuan per person. There are even some areas where the price is lower than the national guide price.
It is expected that the price will fall, but it will fall to single digits, which still surprises many people in the industry.
On April 29, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center organized and carried out the procurement of Guangdong alliance Xinguan testing reagents and related consumables, and announced the successful results. The areas of the alliance's centralized procurement include 19 provinces (cities and districts) such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Xinjiang Construction Corps, The lowest quotation of nucleic acid is 3.2 yuan. The quotation unit is the common nucleic acid reagent and kit of Fosun diagnostic technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. and Beijing Zhuocheng Huisheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd
The centralized procurement of the above 19 provinces and regions is the government order purchase price of the enterprise. Several provinces and regions issued price reduction notices, which directly affected the charging price of nucleic acid for ordinary people.
On May 5, Hebei printed and distributed the notice on adjusting the price of novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection project. From May 6, 2022, the maximum price of the new coronavirus nucleic acid detection project will be reduced from 28 yuan per person to 19.7 yuan, and the maximum price of mixed detection will be reduced from 6 yuan per person to 3.4 yuan. The price of the project is the highest government guided price, which shall not rise or fall. According to the securities times, the guidance price is currently the lowest in China**
Hebei's pricing reference comes from Beijing. On May 2, the Beijing Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau issued the notice on further reducing the price of novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection items, reducing the price of single sample nucleic acid detection from 24.9 yuan per person to 19.7 yuan, a decrease of more than 20%. Meanwhile, the price of mixed detection decreased from 5.9 yuan to 3.4 yuan, a decrease of 42%.
It is worth noting that in early April, Beijing made the seventh dynamic adjustment to the new crown nucleic acid testing project. Since April 9, the price of single sample of new crown nucleic acid testing in public medical institutions in Beijing has been reduced from 35 yuan to 24.9 yuan each time, and the price of mixed testing has been reduced from 8 yuan to 5.9 yuan each sample simultaneously.
At the end of April, Henan issued the notice on further reducing the price of novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection project. The price of new coronavirus nucleic acid detection (single sample collection) project was reduced from 30 yuan / person to 18 yuan / person (excluding nucleic acid detection amplification reagents), and the price of new coronavirus nucleic acid detection (mixed sample collection) project was reduced from 10 yuan / person to 8 yuan / person (including relevant reagents and consumables).
According to the securities times, in addition, several provinces have recently issued price reduction notices for nucleic acid testing According to the statistics of the National Medical Insurance Bureau, in early April, 30 provinces across the country have issued documents to reduce government guidance prices
At present, the price of single inspection in Hainan and Shanghai has been reduced to 25 yuan / person. In terms of multi person mixed inspection, Shandong, Anhui, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other five provinces were reduced to 6 yuan per person, while Shanghai required a charge of no more than 5 yuan per person.
For the average production cost of nucleic acid detection reagent, according to the calculation of the researchers, the average production cost of each reagent is not high, ranging from 3 yuan to 5 yuan**
According to the securities times, Wang Jun (a pseudonym), a senior researcher in the pharmaceutical industry, told reporters that the new crown nucleic acid detection kit mainly comes from government procurement. The purpose is not to make enterprises lose money, but to reduce the cost of middlemen At present, the domestic supply is sufficient. Under this background, the gross profit margin of enterprises may be controlled to about 20% Because the quantity of centralized purchase is relatively large, general enterprises will choose to continue to supply even if the profit is compressed, but the investment will inevitably decrease.
How does price reduction affect relevant enterprises
Under the COVID-19, nucleic acid testing products and antigen testing products have become a powerful driving force for the performance of many Xinguan nucleic acid testing manufacturers, and many enterprises have made a lot of money, which is called "lying profit" in the industry. However, with the reduction of reagent prices and the changes of market supply and demand and competition pattern, the industry has entered the state of "selling more and making less profit".
At the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, China quickly approved the listing and sales of nucleic acid detection reagents of six enterprises, namely Zhijiang biology, Shengxiang biology, Jienuo biology, Berger medical, Daan gene and Huada group. The performance of these "first crabs eaters" has exploded in the past two years. Among them, the net profit of Zhijiang biology soared by 1708.96% year-on-year in 2020; BGI's net profit will exceed 6 times in 2020. However, most of the performance last year will be affected by the price reduction of the new crown nucleic acid detection kit.
The results of BGI in 2021 and the first quarter of this year show that its performance will no longer continue to grow high, and its net profit fell by 29.7% and 37.63% respectively The gross profit margin of Zhijiang biological sales in the first quarter decreased by nearly 30%
In addition, Shengxiang biology's gross profit margin, net profit margin and roe declined in 2021, with declines of 7.97, 5.27 and 19.93pcts respectively. Sun Jian of Zheshang securities and others pointed out in the Research Report on April 18 that the prices of the company's new crown related products were exacerbated and decreased by domestic centralized procurement and market competition .
It is worth noting that from the perspective of the secondary market, the stock prices of Shengxiang biology, Huada gene and Da'an gene have fallen by 74.84%, 70.15% and 49.14% respectively since their highs in 2020; Zhijiang biology has fallen nearly 60% since the beginning of 2021**
However, despite the decline in the revenue of the new crown nucleic acid testing products of the above-mentioned enterprises, the overall gross profit margin is still considerable. According to the securities times, according to wind statistics, 35 companies related to Xinguan nucleic acid testing reagent (including upstream and downstream enterprises), with a median gross profit margin of 61% in 2021** If the average gross profit margin of Wang Jun's industry is reduced to 20%, there is still much room for price reduction as a whole. In particular, the performance of enterprises with high income of Xinguan nucleic acid detection reagent may be further under pressure.
According to the analysis of Sun Jian of Zheshang securities and others, the price of Xinguan nucleic acid detection reagent is expected to fall again after multiple rounds of centralized mining, and the space is limited, the profitability is expected to hit the bottom In addition, in terms of consumption, combined with the overall epidemic prevention policy background of the continuous spread of Omicron virus strain and domestic dynamic clearing, demand is expected to continue to be strong
According to the Research Report of Guosen Securities, as of mid April, 13100 medical and health institutions in China had carried out nucleic acid detection of novel coronavirus, with a detection capacity of 51.65 million tubes per day. The capacity of neocoronavirus nucleic acid detection reagent can meet the current demand. In addition, several cities have begun to implement the normalization of nucleic acid detection** Daan gene, a leading domestic nucleic acid testing manufacturer, is expected to further benefit.
Some insiders said that now the product price has been reduced to a certain extent, and the competition in the new crown nucleic acid testing market has intensified. What began to fight is the product cost, quality and accessibility. In the later stage, the market concentrated on the top enterprises. Specifically, the head companies with a market share of more than 10% will still be profitable to make nucleic acid testing products, while the companies with a market share of only 1% or 1 / 1000 will withdraw from this market due to no profit.
According to surging news, "Xinguan detection is only a phased thing. We can't rely on Xinguan detection for a lifetime. In the end, we still rely on our main business to survive in the industry." A person in charge of a third-party testing agency said in an interview with reporters that the new crown testing business has provided relevant enterprises with soaring opportunities and helped enterprises develop markets and brands, but its long-term development still depends on its main business.