On June 13, the share price of New Oriental online (01797) in Hong Kong stock market rose and fell back, and the increase narrowed from nearly 100% to less than 50%. At the close of Hong Kong stock market, the share price of New Oriental online was HK $8.72, up 39.97%, with a total market value of HK $8.726 billion. In terms of news, during the live broadcast on the evening of June 10, the "Oriental selection" live broadcast platform under New Oriental launched a new mode of bilingual live broadcast with goods. When the anchor recommended goods, he would teach English words and short sentences, and write on the whiteboard for the convenience of the audience.
Author / lvqian, liuxiaoying, Wang Hai
Social networking responded enthusiastically to this innovative model. Many netizens commented that they "admire Lao Yu", "I came to learn English" and "Li Jiaqi can escape but Yu Minhong can not escape". Since the fire broke out on June 10, as of 7:00 p.m. on June 12, the number of fans of Tiktok account selected by Dongfang has increased rapidly from 1million to 2.9 million +, Gmv has increased from one million to nearly 20million (June 11), and the live broadcast has entered the top 10 of Tiktok.
After groping, the fire exploded overnight
On the night of June 10, 135000 people watched the live broadcast, and the total sales of the live broadcast reached 301000. The number of viewers and sales volume of Dongfang selection live room is much higher than this. According to the data of grey dolphin, a third-party live data statistics platform, the peak number of people in Dongfang selection live room was 108000 on the evening of the 10th. There were 125 live goods, 198000 live sales, and the total sales volume of direct broadcast reached 15.343 million yuan, nearly three times that of the first broadcast.
The change of New Oriental's live broadcast mode came from June 8. YuMinHong sent a document on his personal wechat official account saying that he led everyone to form a "New Oriental live broadcast room" team to promote new Oriental's high-quality education products and other high-quality education related products, including books, intelligent software and hardware learning devices, and learning related stationery and educational supplies.
From the perspective of consumers, the innovation of the Oriental selection model is more about novelty and admiration, but from the perspective of suppliers, it is more about surprise.
For Peng Ming, CEO and co-founder of the steak preservation Bureau, and his company, the recent happiness came suddenly. The reason is that the company has scraped a large wave of free products and made a circle. In recent days, the daily sales have reached the level of one million, "the order has exploded."
He recalled that at the end of April, he heard that New Oriental's teacher Yu was going to open a live broadcast. He thought it was very interesting. With a try attitude, he asked his colleagues to talk about cooperation.
Peng Ming said that in the past, he felt that the Oriental selection was for education. People were very honest, and they would not talk about the pit fee like the anchor of some platforms. Instead, he had a rigorous attitude. From the beginning, he asked for the qualification certificates of various companies to strictly control the quality. In addition, what impressed him was that many platforms were trying samples. Before the broadcast, they would ask the brand for a large number of samples to show and try, but Mr. Yu's team was very restrained. At the beginning, they sent a few copies, and they said it was enough, as long as there were enough displays.
After communication, the goods were officially put on the shelves on May 18, and the sales volume of the first game was not too much. "We sold more than 4000 yuan on the first day, and then we cooperated almost every day throughout may, but at that time, the daily sales volume was only one, twothousand or even several hundred yuan." But Peng Ming didn't take it seriously. After all, the company also had sales channels in other platforms such as Tiktok. For them, the sales of Dongfang Zhenxuan at that time was more like a long-term companion relationship. Everyone was growing together, and the other party didn't ask for a pit fee.
According to pengming, the sales of the company in the Oriental selection studio did not exceed 10000 yuan in the whole may (sales of a single show). It was not until June 1 that the sales exceeded 10000 yuan. Since then, the situation has fluctuated, but in the second week of June, the situation suddenly changed, "I checked the data of our backstage. The sales on the 7th exceeded 600000 yuan, on the 8th more than 200000 yuan, on the 9th more than 600000 yuan, and on the 10th directly exceeded one million yuan, reaching more than 1.2 million yuan." Pengming's Steak sales have soared. "Now these days, the daily sales are more than one million yuan."
From the perspective of the brand side, Peng Ming believes that the Oriental selection studio has developed its own unique feature - Bilingual live broadcasting. The anchors are humorous and knowledgeable, which is different from the general commercial live broadcasting. "There is no need to pay for the pit and send a large number of samples. Mr. Yu leads the team to transform the conscience live room." "The business system selected by Dongfang is an open and transparent SaaS system. All businesses can enter and register. Product screening is no longer based on relationship and pit fee, but a more favorable and scientific SaaS system for consumers. As long as the product quality is good, there is a chance to be selected."
"The model of Oriental selection is not to sell goods, but to sell brands. This also points out a way for brand businesses to do live broadcasting and bring goods." Zhangsanfeng (a pseudonym), a person in charge of MCN in Hangzhou, told the first financial reporter that live broadcasting must be the harvest of dividends by brand businesses, because only brands can be sustained, and marketing live broadcasting is also the best way for brand businesses to show.
As for why we choose agricultural products as the starting point, on the one hand, because agricultural products belong to the strategic direction of live broadcasting on major platforms, the after-sales of agricultural products on the platform is often "open-ended", for example, the platform does not support the return of agricultural products for 7 days without reason; On the other hand, agricultural products are non-standard products, and the competition among major e-commerce platforms is not fierce.
"The commission ratio for live broadcast of agricultural products is 10%-15%. What they (Oriental selection) want now is not to make money, but to suck powder." Zhangsanfeng said that the key point is that Oriental has found the right selection method and the right products.
Core data support is still needed for mode sustainability
It is obvious that the temporary popularity can not prove the success of the business model, especially the live broadcast of agricultural products has always been the most difficult bone in the e-commerce field.
An anchor engaged in e-commerce live broadcasting in the field of agricultural products told the first finance and economics reporter that it has been difficult for agricultural live broadcasting to grow in sales. On the one hand, it is due to the high loss rate and high cold chain cost in the transportation process; Secondly, the current live e-commerce dividend is still mainly in the hands of big anchors. The head anchors have a large number of orders, stronger bargaining power and greater profit space.
Talking about the sudden popularity of New Oriental live broadcasting, cuilili, director of the E-commerce Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and economics, told reporters that on the one hand, the top competitors in the live broadcasting field have disappeared one after another. On the other hand, Oriental selection has been groping for a period of time before. Generally, it takes about 3-6 months from plain people to quantity, including the matching between the supply chain and the anchor. Now the industrial chain is running in almost, It has also proved that its model has found a balance through this heat.
Cui Lili believes that whether the future popularity can be sustained depends on the platform's ability to continuously bring goods, such as whether the data dimensions such as watching, placing orders and Gmv of each show can be stabilized at a certain level. In the future, if the platform can match the needs of the customer group, while passing on the corresponding knowledge points around these selections, so that the audience can feel that they have the ability to listen, see and increase knowledge, while ensuring the consumption experience, the model can be sustainable. After all, the target customer group of Oriental selection is mainly middle-class families with relatively high education or individuals with independent economic ability, Starting from the current category, it is more suitable for the current socio-economic background and the consumption of students' families. Sustainable development depends on whether we can adhere to the coordinated design and update of selection, related knowledge and live broadcast scenes under the current tone.
Zhangsanfeng also believes that Dongfang selection will still face challenges in the future. "The live broadcast is about differentiation, and the focus of differentiation is creativity and methods. Without patents, today is new, and tomorrow the industry will not be new if it is copied quickly." Zhangsanfeng said that what Oriental selection needs is continuous iteration and innovation, which is a long way to go.
According to the analysis of the Research Report of CSC securities, from the price point of view, the average sales unit price of the Tiktok live broadcasting room selected by Dongfang is about 60-70 yuan (total sales / number of sold pieces), which is lower than 100+ yuan of other live broadcasting rooms, mainly because the products are mainly food and general merchandise. Among them, the single transaction amount of 80%+ users is less than 100 yuan, and the single transaction amount of 60%+ users is less than 50 yuan.
By horizontal comparison with the head anchor of the Tiktok platform, the number of the top ten multi fans is 10million +, the daily average Gmv is 10million +, and the daily average viewing number reaches 5w+. In contrast, the number of gmvs and viewers selected by Dongfang in the past two days has reached the top of the live broadcast room. In the future, it is still necessary to increase the number of fans retained, and there is still much room for improvement.
CITIC Securities believes that assuming the current growth rate of fans (an increase of 700000-800000 people per day), if the decline rate is not high, the number of fans selected by Dongfang is expected to reach ten million in the next two weeks. Assuming that the daily average Gmv is 10 million yuan, the annual Gmv of Dongfang selection will reach 3.7 billion yuan. Here, with reference to the live broadcasting room for making friends, the net profit /gmv can reach 3%. With the increase of the proportion of self operated products and the increase of customer unit price, the profit margin is expected to increase to 5%. Here, 20 times of PE will be given and the market value of 3.7 billion yuan will be given.